Goodbye 2022. Hello 2023

2022 Events

Mid-November 2022, the World Population surpassed 8 Billion, according to the United Nations.

Wow! What a statistic!

2022 has been a tumultuous year on so many levels:

• Major Stock Market corrections
• Continued Inflation
• The Russia/Ukraine War
• Increased Energy Prices
• Civil Strife is on the rise in many countries
• The China Zero-Covid-Tolerance
• Ongoing Supply Chain Issues
• Queen Elizabeth II died after a 70-year reign
• The UK has had 3 Prime Ministers this year
• Several debacles and bankruptcies in the Crypto World
• Expansion of BRICS nations
• The Bank Of England and The World Health Organisation have issued warnings of increased food prices, food shortages and Global Famines
• The controversial World Cup in Qatar

FINANCE & STOCK MARKETS

The US Federal Reserve has continued its aggressive rate hikes throughout the latter part of 2022, with several 0.75% increases and a recent 0.5% increase.

Low interest rates and cheap money have been available for a number of years. The US Fed increases are making it more difficult for nations, companies and individuals to service their existing debt.

The financial markets witnessed several Yield Curve Inversions at different moments of 2022: 2 yr vs 10 yr, the 5 yr vs 10 yr, the 3 yr vs 5 yr. A Yield Curve Inversion can indicate a higher risk of an incoming recession, generally within 18 months.

According to many mainstream sources, 2022 has not been a good year for the S&P, Nasdaq and the Dow. End of October 2022, Goldman Sachs warned that a Stock Market crash is likely, without stating the ‘When’ or the gravity.

There have been a number of increasing calls for an incoming world recession for 2023/2024.

Keep your eyes and ears open…

Company Market Capitalization

Here is the list of companies with market capitalisations greater than 1 Trillion US Dollars as of the end of 2022:

1. Apple – 2022 $2.64T – 2021 (1st) $2.91 T
2. Saudi Aramco – 2022 $2.29T – 2021 (4th) $1.89T
3. Microsoft – 2022 $2.05T – 2021 (2nd) $2.53T
4. Alphabet – 2022 $1.58T – 2021 (3rd) $1.92T
5. Amazon – 2022 $1.46T – 2021 (5th) $1.58T
6. Tesla – 2022 $1.03T – 2021 $0.388 Bn

It’s interesting to note that Tesla became a $1 Tn company at the end of 2022.

Facebook was a $1 Tn company at the end of 2021. Facebook became Meta in 2022 and it’s market capitalisation end of 2022 was $499 Bn, thus losing over 50% of its value in one year.

GDP Of The Top 10 Countries

The Top Ten rankings has not changed between 2021 and 2022. Just as a comparison to enormous company market capitalizations, here is a comparison of 2022 and 2021 ‘projected‘ Nominal GDP figures:

1. USA – 2022 $20.89T – 2021 $22.9T
2. China – 2022 $14.72T – 2021 $16.8T
3. Japan – 2022 $5.06T – 2021 $5.1T
4. Germany – 2022 $3.85T – 2021 $4.2T
5. UK – 2022 $2.67T – 2021 $3.1T
6. India – 2022 $2.66T – 2021 $2.9T
7. France – 2022 $2.63T – 2021 $2.9T
8. Italy – 2022 $1.89T – 2021 $2.1T
9. Canada – 2022 $1.64T – 2021 $2.0T
10. S.Korea – 2022 $1.63T – 2021 $1.8T

As of end of 2022, Apple has a market capitalization superior to the GDP of France.

Three companies have a market capitalization greater than $2 Tn and therefore greater than the GDP of Italy, Canada and S.Korea.

Inflation

Inflation had reared its ugly head in 2021 and was already clearly visible to the average man and woman. 2022 has seen a marked increase in inflation in both N.America and Europe. A rising number of people are being forced to make the choice between paying their bills or satisfying their basic physiological needs: Food & Shelter.

Inflation was already hurting prior to the Russia/Ukraine war. 2022 has brought more hurt to the table.

In December 2022, VisualCapitalist published a chart showing Double-Digit Inflation in almost half of the world. Some examples include the usual suspects, but there are also several worrying surprises. Let’s take a look:

• G7: USA 7.3%, Japan 3.7%, Germany 10.4%, UK 11.1%, France 6.2%, Italy 11.8%, Canada 6.9%
• Russia 12.6%
• China: 2.1%

• Triple-digit:              Zimbabwe 269%, The Lebanon 162%, Venezuela 156%, Sudan 106%
• Between 50-99%   Argentina 88%, Turkey 88%, Pakistan 76%, Sri Lanka 66%, Iran 56%
• 25-49%                      Cuba 37.2%, Moldavia 34.6%, Ukraine 26.6%
• The Baltic States    Lithuania 22.6%, Estonia 22.5%, Latvia 21.8%
• Hungary 21.1%
• Poland 17.9%
• Just above 10%      Sweden 10.9%, Portugal 10.1%, Denmark 10.1%
• Sub 10%:                  Mexico 8.4%, Spain 7.3%, Australia 7.3%

Military Conflict

The Russia/Ukraine war has monopolized much of the news in 2022.

Relations between Russia & Ukraine have been appalling since February 2014. A proxy war has been underway in the Eastern parts of Ukraine. However, the 24^th of February 2022 marked a massive evolution, with a full-blown invasion of Ukraine by Russian Forces. The Russian aggression has been condemned by many countries, but interestingly, not all. Two Eastern Ukrainian provinces declared independence and the war rages on.

An immediate consequence of the invasion, was the banning of Russia from the SWIFT system, with the exception of certain Russian banks. This exception was to allow certain energy-related transactions to continue to take place between Russia and EU countries. The war has seen increased violence on both sides and unfortunately, it has not abated.

Certain strategic Russian infrastructures have also come under attack, such as the Kerch Bridge, linking the Crimea with the Russian mainland; and the Nordstream II pipeline, which suffered huge damage following a series of underwater explosions, thus halting the transport of LNG to Northern Europe. German industry has been hit hard.

China continues to increase its presence in the South China Sea and has ongoing disputes on several Islands with all nations present in that area.

China and India have a border dispute in the Himalayas that has heated up several times over 2022 and pitch battles have been recorded between Chinese and Indian Regiments on the border

Commodity Increases

Certain commodities were already heavily impacted due to the pandemic.

US Coffee prices rose from $1/pound to $2.38/pound in 2021 and have seen the price decrease somewhat in 2022 (currently around $1.80 / pound)

However, in certain cases, the Russia/Ukraine war has had a direct impact on a number of commodities:

US WTI crude oil experienced a steady rise in price in 2021 from around $50/barrel to above  $70/barrel end of 2021, due mainly to Supply Chain disruptions. However, in 2022, it experienced a significant increase to almost $120/barrel (see two spikes in March and in June) to settle at around $76/barrel.

LNG prices: Demand for LNG has increased substantially in Europe since the end of the pandemic. Supply Chain disruptions already existed. The Russia/Ukraine war has simply complicated a difficult situation. Sanctions on Russia applied by the EU, have produced a boomerang effect on European nations. It is above all Europeans who have borne the brunt of the consequences of the sanctions, with a painful surge in energy costs across the board. The EU has even tried to apply a recent energy price cap on countries. Russia is currently engaging in a tit-for-tat response to these sanctions.

EU countries have had to turn to American, British and Norwegian suppliers for LNG. There is a debate as to whether LNG suppliers or European energy intermediaries are responsible for the shockingly higher prices being paid by end-consumers.

Whatever the truth of the matter is, households are hurting.

US Wheat prices have seen increases exceeding 40% in 2022. According to ‘worldpopulationreview.com’, in millions of tonnes, the Top 10 wheat-producing countries in 2020 were :

1. China — 134,2 MT
2. India — 107,5 MT
3. Russia — 85,8 MT
4. United States — 49,6 MT
5. Canada — 35,1 MT
6. France — 30,1 MT
7. Pakistan — 25,2 MT
8. Ukraine — 24,9 MT
9. Germany — 22,1 MT
10. Turkey – 20,5 MT

In May 2022, India announced a ban on wheat exports, following a heatwave.

 

Potash-producing nations

Potash is mined from the earth and after processing, is used in fertilizers. It helps improve crop yield. In an ever-increasing world population, it has become an extremely important and strategic commodity.

The Top Twelve producers in 2022 in terms of mined tonnage (millions of tonnes=MT) represent 44 MT.  These are:

1. Canada (14 MT)
2. Russia (9MT)
3. Belarus (8 MT)
4. China (6 MT)
5. Germany (2.3 MT)
6. Israel (2.3 MT)
7. Jordan (1.6 MT)
8. Chile (0.9 MT)
9. USA (0.48 MT)
10. Spain (0.4 MT)
11. Laos (0.3 MT)
12. Brazil (0.21 MT)

Combined, Russia and Belarus represent 17 MT or 37% of these Top Producers. The agricultural industry is concerned about the consequences of sanctions on potash availability for 2023 and beyond.

Natural Disaster

Pakistan: Huge floods destroyed arable farmland and caused 1000 deaths. India and Nigeria also experienced serious flooding.

Uganda suffered severe drought, and an earthquake of 6.1 magnitude shook Eastern Afghanistan. 

Recently, an Arctic Polar Storm hit Northern parts of the USA where certain temperatures plunged to -38°C. Dozens of deaths are being recorded in different states.

BRICS Nations

Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa form the BRICS nations. These countries represent 41% of the world’s population. This club is opening up membership: Saudi Arabia has applied. Other countries have expressed a strong interest to join including the UAE, Turkey & Egypt.

Saudi Arabia has been a close ally of the US for decades. However, relations between the two nations have somewhat thawed since the Khashoggi assassination. They are currently at an all-time low with the Biden Administration. The West is wary of the deepening ties between Saudi Arabia and Russia.

The BRICS nations are currently debating a common reserve currency for the BRICS economic block.

Could this be detrimental to US Dollar hegemony?

 

Changes in Governments in 2022

Emmanuel Macron claimed another victory and a second term. Following his victory, he made two new announcements that France had come to the end of an era of abundance and that France should prepare itself for a wartime economy. Spine-chilling.

UK and its economy

The UK is currently on its third Prime Minister in 2022: Johnson, Truss, Sunak. They all have/had one thing in common: They wanted to get Brexit Done. However, the finer detail of certain key points are yet to be agreed between the UK and the EU. To add to the situation, many see an incoming recession that will affect the UK economy.

In the meanwhile, the UK, as with many countries, is hurting as the current Cost-of-living Crisis hits households hard.

Sunak is seen as a more competent alternative to his predecessors and calmed markets. For now. All eyes are on Sunak and his government…

QE2 – The Queen Is Dead! Long Live The King!

On the 8^th of September 2022, Queen Elizabeth II eclipsed and her passing away was commemorated in National (International) mourning, not only in the UK, but throughout the Commonwealth and the World.

RIP Queen Elizabeth II

21-04-1926 – 08-09-2022

After 70 years of reign, her last act of office was to see out PM Johnson and to see in PM Truss.

Prime Ministers from Winston Churchill to Liz Truss had been appointed by the Queen to form a government under her reign.

Enter King Charles III.

EU

The EU is currently being shaken to its foundations by Qatargate. Let’s wait for details on the extent of corruption at high levels, once the dust settles in 2023. It does not portray a positive image of EU institutions.

Overnight, the EU took on the posture of a Military Alliance with the outbreak of the Russia/Ukraine war.

Severe sanctions were applied to Russia and arms were and continue to be sent to aid the Ukraine war effort on behalf of the EU.

An epic energy crisis has ensued in the EU. Cracks have appeared in the unity of club members. Relations between Nato members are strained as members seek a new balance and are having to manage domestic discontent in parallel.

China

China continues to be an enigma.

Xi Jinping succeeded in imposing himself as supreme leader for a third term (and likely more to come). This broke with decades of tradition, whereby a leader carries out two terms and grooms his successor to take over. China has gone from a totalitarian regime to a dictatorship.

2022 saw much sabre-rattling between China, Taiwan, and the USA. The absorption of Taiwan into China remains the ultimate goal for Xi Jinping.

Meanwhile, the housing market is in great difficulty. In China, it represents a massive 29% of GDP. Unfortunately, several major players in the Housing Market have encountered extremely hard times, some of which have defaulted on bonds held by foreign investors – See Evergrande (over $300 Bn of debt), Country Garden, Fantasia Luxury, Modern Land, to name but a few.

The housing scheme model requires constant new capital invested by new investors in order to function. This very much resembles a Ponzi scheme. 2022 saw unhappy retail investors refusing to pay their mortgages as an increasing number of apartments were simply not delivered.

Several Chinese banks have seen bank runs, directly affected by the ailing Property Sector.

The Government has maintained draconian rules of Covid-Zero-Tolerance, imposing strict lockdowns. This has produced negative impacts on the already choked Supply Chain, having a ripple effect on the rest of the world. Only in recent weeks has the Chinese government reduced restrictions.

Coming Elections In 2023

Several nations will hold elections in 2023. Pakistan, India, Nigeria, Turkey, Argentina, Poland, and the Ukraine are amongst them. Certain German state elections will also undergo elections.

 

Workplace phenomena

‘The Great Resignation’ continued in 2022 following the pandemic, with greater numbers of people in the US and in European countries opting out of the rat race. In certain cases, it was until the savings ran out and then reality struck and it became necessary to go back to the workplace. Others opted out in order to pursue a new activity.

The US Bureau Of Labour Statistics (BLS) show continuing high levels of resignations (quits) in 2022. Business Insider already released a record 4.51 million resignations in the US in November 2021. In March 2022, the BLS issued a new record of 4.53 resignations. Resignations surpassing 4 Million have been recorded by the BLS for each month, between June and October 2022.

‘Quiet Quitting’ can concern different profiles of employees: an employee could simply be contented in providing the service for which they have been paid and nothing more. It also concerns an employee who may have become disillusioned, after having dedicated much of their time and energy for the company and consider they have not been fairly rewarded. It can be difficult for an employer to fire such employees. Employers have tended to focus on employees showing more motivation, in order to keep them sweet and happy.

‘Quiet Firing’ has become the response from a certain number of employers: finding an amicable solution so that a quiet quitter could leave the company as soon as is possible.

 

Social Unrest

Civil Unrest has been on the menu in 2022.

January saw the Freedom Convoy in Canada, where transport companies protested against draconian imposed vaccination measures. The response from the Trudeau government was the Emergencies Act, allowing the government to freeze the assets of transporters responsible for road blockages and also the assets of individuals contributing to the crowd-funding in support of the transporters. A watershed moment in the democracy of Canada.

Americas: Peru, Argentina (70% inflation rising to 88%, with 40% of population in poverty), Panama (inflation, anti-corruption demonstrations led by Teachers)

Sri Lanka: this saw a total melt-down of the government due to food, energy and fuel inflation, resulting in a bailout by IMF.

The Netherlands: Dutch Farmers took exception to government rulings to seize farms as a drastic measure to reduce gas emissions from livestock and reduction in the use of nitrogen in fertilizers.

Bangladesh saw protests following huge +50% increases on fuel over 1 week.

Pakistan suffered inflation in food (28% in July) and fuel as Imran Khan’s Government hiked taxes on fuel and Energy.

Indonesia: Protests took place following price increases on cooking oil and fuel.

The Energy Crisis in Europe has resulted in numerous protests, and in certain cases, conflicting protests: Cost-of-Living protests due to high energy bills on one hand and activists demanding an immediate move away from fossil fuels.

It will be difficult for European nations to reconcile the two opposing causes at a time when Europe is going through extremely difficult economic times and shortfalls in energy supply.

Czech Republic: In September, 70.000 people protested in Prague against sky-high Energy prices. These were some of the largest protests in years.

Germany announced gas rationing as the consequences of its uber-dependency on Russian gas hit home. Several German industrial companies are struggling due to high electricity bills.

Pelé

Pelé, the only player to win the World Cup 3 times, died aged 82.

Edson Arantes do Nascimento

aka Pelé

23-10-1940 – 29-12-2022

RIP

Qatar 2022 World Cup

Italy didn’t get to the World Cup in Qatar.

Argentina beat France in the final. And what a final!

Certain Teams from competing nations made protests in different ways: From captains wearing “One Love” arm-bands to a picture of the German Team holding their hand over their mouth just before the kick-off with Japan.

Controversy has surrounded the choice of Qatar for World Cup Tournament for the last 12 years.

Qatar is known for its strict Muslim laws and its aggressive anti-LGBT stance, especially concerning same-sex marriage.

There are also many migrant workers who have participated in the construction of Olympic facilities, working in appalling conditions.

Blockchain

Blockchain technology continues to disrupt many sectors, especially Finance and Trade. Most eyes are focused on the crypto world. Several spectacular bankruptcies have come to light since June 2022, the latest being the most epic.

From Celsius to Voyager, to the Terra/Luna crypto crash, on to the Three Arrows Hedge Fund debacle, the failed BlockFi bailout, the Alameda trading company bankruptcy, right through to the epic November FTX Exchange total collapse. It is difficult to know whether the dominoes have ceased to fall.

This crypto earthquake is being compared to the Bears Stern or Lehman Brothers moment in 2008 in traditional capital markets.

There are numerous incredible and unbelievable aspects to the FTX collapse:

• The mainstream media took several weeks before calling for justice against the CEO of FTX, Sam Bank-Fried aka SBF
• SBF walked freely around his Bahamian residence in Nassau and even gave numerous interviews to the press. The New York Times interview of over 1 hour is worth watching.
• SBF did not appear repentant and claimed he had never knowingly committed fraud. It is however important to respect the presumption of innocence.
• SBF was the second-largest donor to the US Democrats party for the mid-Term elections. Click here to read about SBF donations to the US Democrat and Republican parties.
• Reputed investors such as Softbank, Sequoia Capitol, Kevin O’Leary, the Ottawa Teachers’ Pension Plan, and an estimated one million retail investors were amongst the many victims of the FTX debacle.
• One would expect big players to do the necessary due diligence before making such investments.

CBDCs

Several countries have gone live with a version (albeit reduced) of a CBDC. These include: The Bahamas, China, Nigeria, and The Eastern Caribbean Currency Union.

Central Bank Digital Currencies are being prepared by a growing number of Central Banks. The US Federal Reserve currently has a pilot project on the go.

The Swedish Government is already working with a proof-of-concept CBDC.

India and the Eurozone have started the development of their own CBDC.

The European Central Bank (ECB) announced in September 2022 the list of 5 suppliers for their API interface prototype: Amazon, Caixabank, EPI, Nexi, Worldline.

The Bank Of England put out a tender for a Proof-Of-Concept Sample CBDC Wallet with applications closing on December 23, 2022.

New Technologies To Watch

Artificial Intelligence continues to be integrated into other technologies such as robotics, autonomous vehicles, cybersecurity, machine learning, health and biotech and even the Art world.

Blockchain remains a force to be reckoned with and is present in solutions ranging from health care, Internet Of Things, Supply Chain, Trade, the Music Industry, Real Estate, The Gaming Industry, The Metaverse and of course Finance.

Web3.0 is being rolled out as we write. It is likely to replace the internet web2.0 and enhance the user experience and provide more security, with blockchain as the cornerstone. The tables will be turned on companies like Facebook & Google, who have harvested data from users for the last two decades and have handsomely profited. Had the user become the ‘product’?

With Web3.0, users will be able to profit from sharing their personal data – if they choose to do so. The user will also benefit from their participation in ‘community activities’. An online community will be owned by the community itself. Not by a 3rd party intermediary.

The web3.0 will offer Augmented Reality facilities to render the user-experience in 3D. Blockchain-based gaming will allow users to ‘own’ in-game resources and to transfer those assets from one game to another, using a digital currency.

The NFT (non-fungible token) tsunami will continue and will help uniquely identify digital assets used in web3.0

Biotech will rely more and more on AI and robotics, to shorten the product lifecycle in R&D.

The number of Autonomous vehicles on the road (and in the air) will increase.

Energy Storage technology will continue to evolve. Tesla, for example, is not just an Electric Vehicle manufacturer. They also make batteries for household electricity consumption. Cobalt, Nickel, Manganese and Lithium are the popular choices of current EV battery technology. Alternatives are being researched, as Cobalt is highly polluting and relatively difficult to access (around 50% of world deposits are to be found in the Democratic Republic Of Congo, currently in a civil war and around 35% found in Russia, at loggerheads with the West. See Quantumscape with their little-known Solid-State Lithium Metal technology. Russia is also home to 20% of Nickel deposits in the world.

Predictions From World Institutions

World Health Organisation (WHO) stated that Global Hunger numbers rise to 828 Mn in 2021 and issued a statement in May 2022 that 43 countries were one step away from famine.

In May 2022, Bank Of England governor Andrew Bailey announced “ food price rises” and apologised for appearing to be ‘apocalyptic’ and warned that more increases are possible.

Where is the World Going?

Digital ID will become a reality sooner than we realise for use in many domains in our digital lives. One would hope that a government or a state would NOT be tempted to take the same path as the Chinese Communist Party who use hyper-surveillance on Chinese citizens.

A CBDC can be considered highly convenient when compared to physical cash. However, the notion of ‘privacy’ and ‘freedom to do as you like with your money’ is likely to be brought into question, as governments will have easy access to financial data of the population.

Societal debates must be held as soon as possible, in order to increase awareness of people to the advantages, pitfalls and possible abuses of such power over a population.

Expect CBDCs to hit Mainstream media on a big scale in 2023 to acclimatise the different populations to the advent of Digital Money.

In 2022, Bank branch closures have continued by US banks, but not just. In November 2022, HSBC announced the closure of 1 in 4 UK branches. Click here for the list of UK Bank Branch closures since 2015. The number of closures is high and will continue in 2023. Barclays has the highest number of closures (962) of any UK bank as of end of 2022. This is followed by NatWest, HSBC, Lloyds, Santander, RBS, TSB.

Is the closure of bank branches a sign that Digital Money will arrive faster than we think?

Rising shortages and supply chain disruptions are still being felt. The Chinese authoritarian management of the pandemic has had a huge impact on the whole world and has defied all logic.

Japan has given the go-ahead for the re-opening of a limited number of its nuclear reactors, many of which were closed following the Fukushima nuclear disaster in 2011. To attain zero-carbon emissions by 2050, several countries have adopted an aggressive investment strategy in Nuclear technology: China, Russia, India, Turkey and the United Kingdom are amongst them. The EU labelled Nuclear Energy as a Green Energy in 2022.

Expect huge investment in nuclear technology over the coming decades.

Following the Russia/Ukraine war, many European countries initially agreed to sending aid and arms to the Ukrainian government to counter the Russian invasion. The blowback in terms of energy shortages and increased energy prices is wreaking havoc on European countries.

Expect more European governments to revise their current level of support for sanctions against Russia.

Under the Biden Administration, relations between China and the US have become even more strained than under Trump. The BRICS nations are intensifying their collaboration with each other for Trade and intend carrying out certain energy-related transactions in currencies that may not concern the US Dollar.

This could be considered as overt defiance of US hegemony.

In order to slow China’s technological advance in Military applications and the Semiconductor industry, President Biden issued an executive order banning China’s use of certain US-manufactured semiconductor tools. American citizens working for Chinese companies on the US Whitehouse Blacklist were invited to cease employment with that company.

That was a mighty aggressive move in the continuing economic and trade war between the US and China.

Rare Earth Elements (REEs) remain of high strategic importance. They are the key to continued evolution of technology in most high-end electronics. China continues to be the most prominent nation in REEs with large deposits, but above all, a stranglehold on the facilities to transform these REEs into the basic ingredients used in the electronic industry. The Semiconductor industry is heavily reliant on these. Taiwan continues to play a major role in terms of design and fabrication of semiconductors.

All eyes on the China-Taiwan-US situation in 2023.

Do not ignore the strained relations between China and India in their Himalayan Border Dispute.

Keep an eye open for increasing food shortages in 2023.

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Risk of civil unrest surging in more than half of the world’s countries, analysis says. (2022, September 2). Business Insider. https://www.businessinsider.com/risk-civil-unrest-surging-in-half-of-worlds-countries-analysis-2022-9?international=true&r=US&IR=T

Ritika Rangdal @BLOGTHOUGHTS Dec 01, 2022, 21:36 IST. (2022, December 1). Saudi Arabia: The Foundation of BRICS Currency. Times of India Blog. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/readersblog/blogthoughts/saudi-arabia-the-foundation-of-brics-currency-47508/

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Yahoo is part of the Yahoo family of brands. (n.d.-c). https://news.yahoo.com/bank-branch-closures-38-pandemic-155707456.html

Yahoo is part of the Yahoo family of brands. (n.d.-b). https://finance.yahoo.com/news/biden-chip-controls-may-force-092957115.html

Yahoo is part of the Yahoo family of brands. (n.d.). https://finance.yahoo.com/news/yield-curve-inverts-april-2022-200829124.html

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